All legal challenges have been exhausted. It cannot be undone before November, and there are a lot of good reasons to be optimistic:
1. There are a lot of other things on the ballot, which makes it more likely that people will vote No across the board.
2. Obama on the presidential ticket should mean higher turnout by more liberal voters. Consider it the flip side of the 2004 Kerry effect where the threat of same-sex marriage might have cost him votes by encouraging the bigots to show up to vote. Those voters are dispirited, and it will work the other way around this time.
3. The proposition is written in such a vague way that it will be easy to raise concerns about it. For example, one reading I've heard is that by excluding same-sex marriage but not explicitly affirming heterosexual marriage, it would effectively ban all marriages. Talk about your threats to marriage!
4. Ellen DeGeneres is getting married. I think this is one place where celebrity is actually influential on the culture. If that nice woman on your favorite talk show can get married, it must not be so bad, right?
5. Other marriages are already happening, and by longstanding legal principle would probably be grandfathered in even if an anti-marriage inititiave passed. People will be reluctant to create legal uncertainty for those people, or alternatively as opponents of marriage equality will likely realize that what's done can't be undone. If people are uncertain about the legal outcome of an initiative, they're likely to vote No.
Well, some Californians, particularly San Franciscans, are like that about everything. "It's cool? Then we invented it! Here! And you're all gonna copy us, because you all wanna BE us!"
But, y'know...let those who are so inclined be like that; you can't stop 'em anyway. The sensible ones will learn from those who have gone before, particularly WRT facing and defeating challenges.
=v= San Franciscans invented everything, including sex.
Actually, my take is that San Franciscans really do initiate a lot of stuff but aren't as good on the follow-through. They flit off to something else, leaving the heavy lifting to others.
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1. There are a lot of other things on the ballot, which makes it more likely that people will vote No across the board.
2. Obama on the presidential ticket should mean higher turnout by more liberal voters. Consider it the flip side of the 2004 Kerry effect where the threat of same-sex marriage might have cost him votes by encouraging the bigots to show up to vote. Those voters are dispirited, and it will work the other way around this time.
3. The proposition is written in such a vague way that it will be easy to raise concerns about it. For example, one reading I've heard is that by excluding same-sex marriage but not explicitly affirming heterosexual marriage, it would effectively ban all marriages. Talk about your threats to marriage!
4. Ellen DeGeneres is getting married. I think this is one place where celebrity is actually influential on the culture. If that nice woman on your favorite talk show can get married, it must not be so bad, right?
5. Other marriages are already happening, and by longstanding legal principle would probably be grandfathered in even if an anti-marriage inititiave passed. People will be reluctant to create legal uncertainty for those people, or alternatively as opponents of marriage equality will likely realize that what's done can't be undone. If people are uncertain about the legal outcome of an initiative, they're likely to vote No.
Wot? ANOTHER celebrity marriage?
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But, y'know...let those who are so inclined be like that; you can't stop 'em anyway. The sensible ones will learn from those who have gone before, particularly WRT facing and defeating challenges.
Good at weddings. Marriages, not so much.
Actually, my take is that San Franciscans really do initiate a lot of stuff but aren't as good on the follow-through. They flit off to something else, leaving the heavy lifting to others.
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All I got to say is
Oh and
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Here's hoping it sticks this time.