"hope for change. prepare for disappointment"

[rmd]

and now, a moment of politics.

my probably-cynical possibly-realistic expectations for the next four years.

things i expect out of the coming obama presidential term: no improvement in the federal status of marriage equality. (the past few days, i'm seeing a bunch of queer folks notice that, in fact, the democratic party are not our friends. they're just not our enemies.) possibly some improvement in choice- and sex-ed-related things -- in particular, getting away from 'abstinence-only' requirements for education programs. probably not a lot of change in second-amendment-related stuff - maybe laws around trigger locks, maybe changes in private sale paperwork (the so-called "gun show loophole"); i'm hoping they let the OMGUGLYGUNS 'assault weapon' ban expire, but i suspect they won't. if anything happens with health insurance, it'll be a clusterfuck and probably not be great.

i'm skeptical about how much PATRIOT act and fearmongering BS will be rolled back. it's hard for government to give that sort of power up. i really really hope they do, however. if i don't see habeas corpus reinstated, tho, i'm gonna have to go to washington and start cockpunching people.

while i really want the feds to roll back DOMA, i think it would be an incredibly bad choice for obama to blow political capital on this (even if he were so inclined) for at least a year or two. the christian taliban wing of the republican party is all amped up and still hoarse from screaming that obama is the antichrist, so they'll be all set to start crowing 'WE TOLD YOU HE WOULD MAKE YOU ALL BE GAY CHILD MOLESTERS!!!' assuming we get at least one or two supreme court justices retiring over the next couple of years, this *does* provide an opportunity to put a couple of justices there who will agree that, in fact, loving v virginia applies just as well to laws making a massachusetts marriage (of any sort) illegal in other states. i'd rather see DOMA drop that way, because in one fell swoop it will take care of DOMA *and* all the state laws, rather than having to fight tooth and nail across each state in turn.

i expect to want the incoming government to worry more (or at least differently) about education. i want to see a pro-american-innovation pro-science push like we got after sputnik went up. instead, we'll probably get more standardized testing. because it's more important that we teach kids to pass this test than to learn other things. i am hoping that they worry less about carbon footprints, particularly in the LOOK! DISPOSABLE DIAPERS ARE KILLING THE EARTH! fashion of mediagenic-but-relatively-unimportant frothing, and more about getting more research in solutions and innovations. (then again, i think that if man-made factors are a notable part of climate change, that it's long past the point where minor changes will help. on the other hand, now is the time to start looking at how to keep or improve civilization as the climate changes.)

even if obama manages to find god's own economists for his economic advisers, i think the economy has still got at *least* a couple of years of ABSOLUTE SUCKING, so, i have no high hopes there. i'm mostly hoping he doesn't do anything that makes it much worse.

i would assume there are at least some democratic strategists arguing that they keep away from guns and gays until the mid-term elections, at least, since iirc historically there are strong minority party gains in congress in the midterm elections when the white house changes parties. (in particular, see the 1994 elections.)

i am fairly sure that the republicans - particularly in the senate - will be an .. active and adversarial, shall we say, minority party. they'd fucking well better be. i am *delighted* the democrats don't have a 60-member senate. (also, it lets the democrats tell lieberman to go fuck himself, which they'd damn well better do.) on the other hand, it would be good for the democrats to notice (as they haven't seemed to over the past two years) that they have a majority and can do more than write strongly worded letters before rolling over and doing whatever the republicans seem to want. (seriously, the past couple of years, they've done way too much of that. "NO! NO! ... okay, we're gonna write a letter. ... okay, whatever you want. go ahead.")

a thing that pleases me in particular about the white house changing hands: new talent available. if mccain won, who would he have staffed his administration with? there's NOBODY LEFT on the republican bench. i mean, seriously.

a thing that pleases me in particular about obama winning in stead of mccain: i am hoping that please, for the love of god, can we - as a country - move past the baby boomer obsession with the battles of their youthful prime. OH MY GOD IT'S LIKE THOSE DIRTY HIPPIES! OH MY GOD IT'S LIKE NIXON! stfu about the fucking sixties, people. really.

so, yeah, i'm glad obama won, but i'm already preparing to bitch and moan about him. :-)

Comments

[dpolicar]

That seems pretty accurate. Though mostly I think the mid-term elections (and 2012) will live or die on public perception of how the new administration deals with the "economy" (Dow, unemployment, inflation) and "national security" (Middle East, foreign terrorism on US soil, domestic terrorism).

Which reminds me -- am I the only one anticipating a trivial but treated-as-really-important wave of Oklahoma-style domestic terrorism as an expression of marginalized rage by white supremacists and their ilk?

[rmd.livejournal.com]

no. you are not. unfortunately.

[bikergeek.livejournal.com]

I can see that happening. Especially if the Republican Party drifts more towards the center and thus alienates its lunatic fringe.

[dpolicar]

I can see it either way, really.

If the GOP is perceived as drifting center-ward, crazies who identify as far-right will feel abandoned, alienated, and resentful, justifying violence. If it is perceived as drifting right-ward, they will feel supported and encouraged by a beleaguered minority, justifying violence.

Similarly, if it's perceived as working with the Democrats, the crazies feel betrayed. If it's perceived as fighting the Democrats, the crazies feel encouraged.

I think their way out of that trap is to be perceived as non-reactive... as standing for a positively expressed philosophy of government. (The crazies will still do crazy things, but the connection between self-identified right-wing crazies and the party will be less compelling.) But this is hard.

OTOH, they might embrace it.

The Democrats will be faced with the same dilemma soon; if they try to define themselves by opposition their popular support will crumble and we'll go back to 50/50 split elections.

[solarbird]

Don't worry about that:

Poll: 64 Percent Of Republicans Want Palin To Run In 2012
Huffington Post

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Republicans have a favorable view of Palin, including 65% who say their view is Very Favorable... When asked to choose among some of the GOP's top names for their choice for the party's 2012 presidential nominee, 64% say Palin. The next closest contenders are two former governors and unsuccessful challengers for the presidential nomination this year -- Mike Huckabee of Arkansas with 12% support and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts with 11%.

[bikergeek.livejournal.com]

I think a lot of that is because the Republican Party really doesn't have anybody else they can float right now as a serious contender in 2012. Other than John McCain, Sarah Palin seems to be the only Republican who's had her name in the papers in recent months in sentences that don't involve the words "indicted", "arraigned", "sentence", or "wide stance". (Rumor has it that she'll be appointed as Ted Stevens's replacement in the Senate.)

[sethg]

Alas, no. The majority of Republicans really do want to drive their party further into the nuthouse.

[babasyzygy.livejournal.com]

As Paul Begala quipped, "...and 100% of Democrats want Palin to run."